A chapter I co-authored on statistical issues underlying the selection of distributions in probabilistic risk assessment has now been published by SETAC in a book on Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides.
While current methods used in ecological risk assessments for pesticides are largely deterministic, probabilistic methods that aim to quantify variability and uncertainty in exposure and effects are attracting growing interest from industries and governments. Probabilistic methods offer more realistic and meaningful estimates of risk and hence, potentially, a better basis for decision-making. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides examines the applicability of probabilistic methods for ecological risk assessment for pesticides and explores their appropriateness for general use.
The book, edited by Bill Warren-Hicks and Andy Hart, contains the following chapters:
Chapter 1 Introduction and Objectives (A. Hart, D. Farrar, D. Urban, D. Fischer, T. La Point, K. Romijn, and S. Ferson)
Chapter 2 Problem Formulation for Probabilistic Ecological Risk Assessments (A. Hart, S. Ferson, J. Shaw, G. W. Suter II, P. F. Chapman, P. L. de Fur, W. Heger, and P. D. Jones)
Chapter 3 Issues Underlying the Selection of Distributions (D. Farrar, T. Barry, P. Hendley, M. Crane, P. Mineau, M. H. Russell, and E. W. Odenkirchen)
Chapter 4 Monte Carlo, Bayesian Monte Carlo, and First-Order Error Analysis (W. J. Warren-Hicks, S. Qian, J. Toll, D. L. Fischer, E. Fite, W. G. Landis, M. Hamer, and E. P. Smith)
Chapter 5 The Bayesian Vantage for Dealing with Uncertainty (D. A. Evans, M. C. Newman, M. Lavine, J. S. Jaworska, J. Toll, B. Brooks, and T. C. M. Brock)
Chapter 6 Bounding Uncertainty Analyses (S. Ferson, D. R. J. Moore, P. Van den Brink, T. L. Estes, K. Gallagher, R. O’Connor, and F. Verdonck)
Chapter 7 Uncertainty Analysis Using Classical and Bayesian Hierarchical Models (D. R. J. Moore, W. J. Warren-Hicks, S. Qian, A Fairbrother, T. Aldenberg, T. Barry, R. Luttik, and H.-T. Ratte)
Chapter 8 Interpreting and Communicating Risk and Uncertainty for Decision Making J. L. Shaw, K. R. Tucker, K. Aden, J. M. Giddings, D. M. Keehner, and C. Kriz)
Chapter 9 How to Detect and Avoid Pitfalls, Traps, and Swindles (G. Joermann, T. W. La Point, L. A. Burns, J. P. Carbone, P. D. Delorme, S. Ferson, D. R. J. Moore, and T. P. Traas)
Chapter 10 Conclusions
Although the book was compiled primarily to assist with the registration of plant protection products, the techniques it describes are likely also to be of considerable use under REACH, as described in ECHA’s guidance on uncertainty analysis.